2005 District 10 Football Forecast
By Todd Warner - PFN
This 2005 District 10 football forecast is based primarily on last year’s results, the projected number of returning letterman and starters that each team is expecting back this season, and key intangibles like coaching experience and team traditions. It was developed in early August before the teams even began two-a-day sessions. While completely for the entertainment of the fans, this forecast should certainly not be taken too seriously. Last year, our preseason forecast was surprisingly accurate (even to the author) for every class of D10 football; with one enormous exception. That big exception was our prediction in Class AA that Grove City would finish 5th in Region 3. The Eagles started out 0-2; then stunned us and the PA High School football world by not losing another game until they fell to Lansdale Catholic in the PIAA title game. Certainly, there will be a big surprise or two in D10 this year and we can’t wait to see how it evolves. This report will list the teams in our predicted order of finish and include each team’s region and overall projected records for the upcoming season.
Class A: Regions 1 (South) and 2 (North)
D10A consists of two regions. Region 1 features 7 teams in the southern portion of the district; while Region 2 is home to 8 teams from the northern area. In D10A, four teams make the playoffs. The top finisher in each region gets an automatic berth. Typically, the runners-up in each region claim the final two spots. However, the D10 committee reserves the right to select the 3rd and 4th playoff participants from among all teams that did not get an automatic berth.
Region 1 Forecast
1st-Kennedy Catholic (6-0, 8-1): If they stay healthy, the Golden Eagles should feature an awesomely explosive, high scoring offense which could put more than 35 points per game on the board. And, their defense figures to be bigger and quicker than last year’s edition. KC went 6-3 last season, but did not make the playoffs. This season, their regional title hopes and automatic playoff berth may be determined very early when they visit defending D10A champion Sharpsville on September 16th.
2nd-Sharpsville (5-1, 8-1): A year after rolling up 11 straight wins en route to the D10A title, the Blue Devils expect to once again be a force. So much in fact, that if they are 3-0 after their crucial showdown with Kennedy Catholic, Sharpsville could very well post a second straight perfect regular season.
3rd-Cochranton (4-2, 5-4): The Cardinals posted just one win a year ago. But, a season before that they rolled over 10 straight opponents before losing a 2OT heartbreaker against West Middlesex in the D10A title game. Now, the sophomores from that D10 finals team are seniors and expect to lead Cochranton to a solid season. Cardinal playoff hopes will either flourish or fizzle depending how they fare in back to back (9/23 and 10/1) clashes with Sharpsville and Kennedy Catholic. Non-region schedule is tough, too.
4th-Linesville (3-3, 5-3): The Lions are always tough. Last year, they lost two great games (both to Sharpsville) in the regular season and the D10A title clash. But just about every stud in the Lions’ stable graduated in June, so a major rebuilding job appears to be in the works in Linesville. The Lions only have eight regular season games scheduled.
5th-West Middlesex (2-4, 2-8): The Big Reds have fallen on tough times since claiming back-to-back D10 titles in 2002 and 2003. They don’t appear to have the firepower to make a playoff run this season. Their schedule includes 10 regular season games. The Big Reds will struggle to beat any of their four non-region opponents.
6th-Lakeview (1-5, 2-8): The Sailors are coming off a pretty solid 7-3 campaign, but must replace virtually all of their offensive producers from the previous two seasons.
7th-Conneaut Lake (0-6, 1-8): Lake plays Conneaut Valley in their season finale. That October 28th clash against an old rival appears to be their best chance to pick up a win.
Region 2 Forecast
1st-Iroquois (7-0, 9-0): The unbeaten season prediction is not a misprint. There is really enough size, strength, speed, and talent on both sides of the ball in Lawrence Park for veteran Coach Phil Glass to produce a perfect regular season. The Braves play two rugged non-regional games against AA powers North East and Fort LeBoeuf and we expect them to win both of those games. Barring a major upset or two in region play, the Region 2 title should be decided when Iroquois travels to defending region champ Fairview on October 14th.
2nd-Fairview (6-1, 7-2): Fairview has some outstanding skill people back this season; much on the Tigers’ interior line returns; and the most promising sophomore class in almost two decades will make an immediate impact in a number of areas. Fairview will be disappointed if a return to the D10 playoffs is not on the agenda.
3rd-Youngsville (5-2, 8-2): The Eagles are concerned about speed. But, they have plenty of size and strength up front and should be physical enough to challenge for a playoff spot. An overflow crowd should flood Mike Shine Field on September 23rd to watch a projected clash of unbeatens between Iroquois and Youngsville.
4th-Eisenhower (4-3, 5-5): Ike opens with three very difficult opponents and also likely losses (Sharpsville, Iroquois, and Youngsville). If Ike can win one of those 3, a better season than predicted should happen. If they can win at least 2 of those games, they could be playoff-bound.
5th-Saegertown (3-4, 5-5): The Panthers’ have plenty of potential and usually field a tough, physical team. If Saegertown intends to be a playoff team for the 3rd time in 4 years, they must produce big results in a brutal stretch from September 23rd to October 14th---when they play every team we have picked to finish ahead of them.
6th-Union City (2-5, 2-8): The Green and White Fightin’ Bears have to rebuild their skill positions this season. The defense is expected to be improved from last year, but point production is a major concern.
7th-Cambridge Springs (1-6, 1-8): Once a perennial power among the D10 small school teams, CS is counting on a bunch of returning underclassmen from last season to show huge improvement and produce a much better season.
8th-Conneaut Valley (0-7, 0-10): CV is rebuilding and numbers are a serious issue. While they should be competitive in several games, they won’t be favored in any.
D10A Post-Season Outlook
This could the year of an “All Erie County” D10A title game. We expect a couple of excellent semi-final games as Iroquois edges defending champ Sharpsville, 24-17; and Fairview upsets Region 1 champ Kennedy Catholic in a big-play filled 35-30 thriller. Then, Iroquois has too much experience and senior leadership and beats Fairview for the second time this season, 28-19, in the D10A title game.
Class AA: Regions 3 (South) and 4 (North)
D10AA consists of two regions with 8 teams in each. In D10AA, four teams make the playoffs. The top finisher in each region gets an automatic berth. Typically, the runners-up in each region claim the final two spots. However, the D10 committee reserves the right to select any the 3rd and 4th playoff participants from all teams that did not get an automatic berth. Class AA is expected again to be D10’s strongest and deepest class; with the most potential to make an impact in the PIAA playoffs. In 2003, most of the experts across PA underestimated the strength of D10AA. Slippery Rock went on to claim the D10 title and then advanced all the way to the PIAA Western Final. Then, last season, Grove City shook off season-opening losses to Harbor Creek and Greenville, won 7 straight games to grab the final D10AA playoff spot, stunned unbeaten North East in the first round, avenged their loss to Harbor Creek in the title game, and eventually traveled to State College and stunned mighty D6AA champ Tyrone in their own backyard in the Western Final. Grove City’s Cinderella season ended in Hershey. Maybe this season, people outside the northwest corner will recognize early on that D10AA is a class that deserves respect.
Region 3 Forecast
1st-Greenville (7-0, 9-0): The Trojans are never fancy, but they are always tough and physical. That will be the case again this fall. We expect the Trojan defense to be as good as any team in any class of D10 football. Last season, Greenville won close road games against Grove City and Wilmington to claim the Region 3 crown. This season, they’re at home on September 9th and September 23rd against those two teams and a sweep will all but guarantee them of repeating as Region 3 champs.
2nd-Wilmington (6-1, 8-1): Expect the Hounds to unleash their best offensive attack since the glory days of the late 1990’s and a very quick defense. We see Wilmington rolling into an unbeaten showdown at Greenville in Week 4. If the Hounds are still unbeaten when they wake up on September 24th, they are likely to stay that way for the entire season. As always, the vocal Hound faithful should and do expect to be involved in the D10 postseason party.
3rd-Grove City (5-2, 6-3): Last season, the Eagles made one of the most miraculous runs in PIAA football playoff history. An 0-2 start was followed by an incredible 11 straight wins, before GC fell in the state title game to Lansdale Catholic. This year, Grove City has plenty of talent returning. If the Eagles can knock off Greenville on September 9th, they should be unbeaten in Region 3 play when Wilmington comes to town on October 7th for a possible Region 3 title-deciding clash.
4th-Slippery Rock (4-3, 4-5): The Rockets fell fast and hard last year after claiming back-to-back D10AA crowns in 2002 and 2003. They are well-coached and have enough talent to make a return to the playoffs. But, they will have to play much more disciplined football this fall. Their non-region games in Weeks 1 and 9 are against tough opponents and their playoff hopes hinge on how they fare in back to back late September road games at Grove City and Greenville.
5th-Hickory (3-4, 4-5): The Hornets have a number of offensive question marks that they will have to answer right off the bat. They’ll be underdogs in 2 of their first three games. But if they surprise us and start out 2-1 or 3-0, Hickory could make a run for a playoff spot. Some new defensive starters will have to step up very fast, too.
6th-Sharon (2-5, 2-7): What in the world has happened to the storied Sharon Tiger football program? They have many more all-time wins (561) than the next closest D10 team (Greenville with 506); and only Cathedral Prep has claimed more D10 football titles than the Tigers. The most intense and dedicated Tiger fans still gather regularly at Bianco Brothers’ Barbershop as they have for decades. But now, those diehards no longer talk about the glory days of Sharon football. Instead, they are wondering when and if those times will ever return to fabled Tiger Stadium. It won’t be this year.
7th-Reynolds (1-6, 2-8): The Raiders could have a much better season than we expect. But for that to happen, they have to get off to a good start. Their defense will be tested greatly in the opener against explosive Kennedy Catholic. We have the Raiders listed as underdogs in their first 4 games. If Reynolds surprises us and wins more than 2 games in September, their loyal fans should have some fun times this fall before the “National Sport in Transfer”----wrestling season, of course, begins in December.
8th-Mercer (0-7, 2-7): The rebuilding Ponies’ best shot to pick a few wins appears to be when they play non-region games against Class A West Middlesex in the opener and then close against a Maplewood team that has not won a game in more than 2 years.
Region 4 Forecast
1st-Harbor Creek (7-0, 9-0): The Huskies will bring a complete package to the table. A powerful running game, a quick, physical defense, and perhaps the best all-around special teams play in any class of D10 football. They will be tested, but should prevail in a pair of tough road games against Grove City and Girard to open the season. That will put HC into position to cruise unbeaten into Week 6 and 7 home showdowns with Fort LeBoeuf and North East. Those two games will almost certainly determine who’s in the playoffs.
2nd-Fort LeBoeuf (6-1, 7-2): The Bison went 7-2 last season, but it was not enough to get them a playoff spot as they finished 3rd in the region behind HC and NE. This fall, expect the big, strong LeBoeuf offensive line and a trap-happy running game to manhandle enough opponents in the north that the Bison qualify for the playoffs.
3rd-North East (5-2, 6-3): The Pickers were truly good enough last year to be a state title contender. They steamrolled their way to a 9-0 regular season and the Region 4 title. Then, they were the victims of a heart-breaking D10AA semi-final upset at the hands of Grove City. Graduation claimed some marvelous talent, but the cupboard is hardly bare. If the Pickers are able to beat either Harbor Creek or Fort LeBoeuf, they should return to the D10AA playoffs for the 3rd straight season.
4th-Northwestern (4-3, 4-5): As usual, the Wildcats will provide plenty of offensive excitement for the fans in Albion and we expect them to post a winning record in Region 4 games. However, the Cat defense is a big concern; especially against the run. If Northwestern wins all of the games that they are favored to win and manages to pull off an upset or two of the big boys in the region; the Cats could be headed to the postseason.
5th-Girard (3-4, 5-4): The Jackets figure to win their non-region games against Sharon and backyard Class A rival Fairview; but we see this as a rebuilding year for them inside Region 4. On defense, they’ll be disciplined and hit hard. On offense, they’ll throw less than 5 passes per game and try to bulldoze their opponents with a very non-fancy, smash-mouth, dive-oriented running game. They will be in every game.
6th-Seneca (2-5, 3-7): The Bobcats will have decent size and strength in the trenches, but may lack the team speed to run with the upper echelons teams in the region. As always, win or lose, Seneca will play very physical football and all of their opponents will know that they have been in a football game when they wake up on Saturday.
7th-Mercyhurst Prep (1-6, 4-6): Last season, the Lakers snapped a long losing streak dating back to 2001 with a win over Maplewood. MP should be able to beat ‘Wood again this year, too. Better yet, a very favorable three game non-region schedule gives MP a realistic chance to have at least a 4-win season and some future optimism.
8th-Maplewood (0-7, 1-9): The Tiger program must make enormous strides over the long-haul; beginning with development of a feeder program, if they ever plan to have much success in rugged Region 4. ‘Wood has recorded back-to-back winless seasons and if they don’t end that streak on opening night at Class A Union City, a 3rd straight winless campaign will become an instant possibility.
D10AA Post-Season Outlook
AA is the deepest class in D10 and the most likely D10 class to have its champion advance deep into the PIAA playoffs. History has proven that on numerous occasions. But, respect from fans and experts in the rest of the Commonwealth is still not where it should probably be for D10AA. Every team that wins its way into the D10AA playoffs will be a fine football team. We expect to see a pair of excellent semi-final match ups and a terrific D10AA title game. In the semis, look for once-beaten Region 3 runner-up Wilmington to travel nearly 100 miles north to the Erie area and win a wild 34-28 thriller over undefeated Region 4 champ Harbor Creek. Meanwhile, Region 3’s undefeated kings, Greenville, will have too much size and strength for Fort LeBoeuf as the Trojans prevail, 36-23. In the D10AA title game, expect the venue to be Slippery Rock University and the victor to be Wilmington as the Hounds avenge their only regular season loss and claim the crown with a 14-9 defensive gem over Greenville.
Class AAA: Region 5
D10AAA consists of a single region (Region 5) with nine teams. The teams play each of the other eight teams in D10AAA and then one “cross-regional” game against a D10AAAA opponent. The Top Four regular season finishers are in the playoffs; unless some exceptional circumstances determined by the District 10 committee results in a change to the playoff order. Last year, star-studded Strong Vincent rolled to their second straight D10AAA title and advanced to the PIAA Western Final where they dropped a heart-breaking and controversial (to Erie area fans) 21-20 decision to WPIAL and eventual PIAA Champion Thomas Jefferson. It will take a huge effort this fall for D10AAA to have a team move as deep into the state playoffs. But the region should be wide-open and provide lots of fun and excitement for fans across the northwest corner.
Region 5 Forecast
1st-General McLane (8-0, 8-1): The Lancers will once again bring a high-powered offense featuring excellent talent at every position, very physical defense, and terrific special teams play to every game. GM should roll to a 4-0 start with relative ease before facing their two biggest challenges in the region (home against Strong Vincent on September 30th and a dangerous road trip to Oil City the following week). Expect them to pass those tests as well, finish unbeaten in Region 5, and grab the top playoff spot.
2nd-Oil City (7-1, 8-1): The Oilers’ key game will be on Saturday afternoon, September 17th in Erie against Strong Vincent. If OC emerges from that Week 3 showdown with their unbeaten record still intact, they will have a great season.
3rd-Strong Vincent (6-2, 6-3): The Colonels lost a massive arsenal of talent to graduation in June and if the two-time defending D10AAA champs can pull off a Top Three finish in the region with their relatively young lineup, then they might just have the foundations of building a long-term dynasty on Erie’s Lower West Side.
4th-Titusville (5-3, 5-4): The Rockets’ road trip to Franklin on September 23rd very well may decide who gets the final D10AAA playoff spot this season.
5th-Franklin (4-4, 4-5): The Knights are likely to once again feature a wide open, pass-happy offense that causes fits for opposing defenses. But they’ll have to figure out a way to make sure that big passing and receiving numbers provide enough wins to put them in the Top Four and the playoffs.
6th-Meadville (3-5, 4-5): We expect the Bulldogs to be improved over last season. The problem for them could be the way their schedule is lined up. Their first three games are against teams that we project to make the playoffs. If the Dogs can avoid an 0-3 start, they should be in their best position in years to record a winning season and maybe even a playoff berth.
7th-Warren (2-6, 2-7): The Dragons will be young at a number of key positions and youth in D10AAA usually experience growing pains.
8th-Erie East (1-7, 1-8): Will East be able to avoid a repeat of last season’s winless campaign? Only if they can beat the Corry Beavers.
9th Corry (0-8, 2-8): Corry should challenge several teams in D10AAA and the Beavers, who have 10 regular season games on their schedule, should be able to pick up wins against both of their non-region opponents (Week 9 and 10 games with Erie Central and Union City).
D10AAA Post-Season Outlook
Unless something very unusual happens to force the D10 committee to change the playoff selection process, the Top Four teams will get in. In the semis, #1 General McLane and #4 Titusville will meet in a repeat of their 2002 D10AAA semi final clash. (GM won that one, 35-26). This meeting probably won’t be as close as General McLane will be clicking on all cylinders and roll to a 47-20 win to advance to the finals. In the other side of the bracket, #3 seed and defending two-time champ Strong Vincent will avenge their regular season defeat by Oil City and hand the Oilers a tough 23-20 loss. The title game will feature the two teams that have won the last three titles and General McLane will cruise past Strong Vincent, 35-13, for the their first title since 2002 and a trip to the PIAA playoffs.
Class AAAA: Region 6
There are only three Class AAAA teams in D10. Our projected order of finish:
1st—Cathedral Prep (2-0, 6-3)
2nd—McDowell (1-1, 8-1)
3rd—Erie Central (0-2, 0-9)
Postseason Outlook: McDowell’s schedule favors the Trojans ending up with an overall better record than Cathedral Prep (the Ramblers may get a few bumps and bruises when they face powers from the Buckeye State). With new coaches stalking both sidelines this fall, it should add an interesting chapter to the rivalry. Nonetheless, we expect that Prep will be bigger, stronger, and deeper, than McDowell. Prep wins the regular season preview over McDowell, 21-15, and then claims another D10AAAA crown with a solid 23-7 win and a trip to the PIAA playoffs.
